Chalmers Climate Dynamics Group

The Arctic has experienced rapid and profound changes due to its heightened sensitivity to global warming and growing regional human pressures. While past research has advanced our understanding of these transformations, a comprehensive assessment within a unified analytical framework is still needed to quantify the ecological impacts of human activity across this fragile region. In this study, we systematically assessed the expansion of human activity and its ecological effects across Arctic and sub-Arctic regions from 2000 to 2020. We combined satellite-based land-cover datasets, vegetation resilience indicator (i.e., lag-1 month temporal autocorrelation of remotely sensed greenness), and species distribution data to track and analyze these changes and impacts. Our findings show that areas affected by human activity—mainly cultivated lands and artificial surfaces—expanded by nearly 13,000 km², equivalent to a rate of 1.8 % per decade. This growth was largely driven by the increase in artificial surfaces (∼77.2 %) and extended to higher latitude. As a result, natural habitats became increasingly fragmented, vegetation resilience declined, and risks of ecological tipping points rose. These impacts threatened the habitats of approximately 97.5 % of Arctic species, including 111 species listed as vulnerable or endangered. Our results highlight that, beyond the effects of climate change, the continued expansion of human activity is intensifying ecological risks in the Arctic. This underscores an urgent need for enhanced ecological protection and transformative social strategies to safeguard the region’s future.